Canadian Journal of Political Science · 1986 · 26 citations · 2 references
Public PolicyFederal ElectionElection ForecastingBiasPolitical ProcessVoting RulePolitical BehaviorOntario Provincial ElectionsLarge ShiftOntario ElectionsPolitical CompetitionPolitical ScienceSocial Sciences
Abstract This note extends the authors' earlier work on incumbency in Canadian federal and Ontario provincial elections by examining riding by riding results in the 1984 federal and 1985 Ontario provincial elections. In particular, the authors test their earlier hypothesis that incumbency effects are swamped by large shifts in voter preferences. The results indicate that incumbency had a significant impact, and that this impact was not reduced by the large shift in votes in the 1984 federal election. The authors reject the hypothesis that large shifts in party allegiance reduce incumbency effects.
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