Global distribution of contrail radiative forcing

Abstract

The global distribution of radiative forcing by persistent linear contrails has been estimated for 1992 and 2050 using global contrail cover computed for aircraft fuel consumption scenarios for the two periods, a detailed prescription of the radiative properties of the Earth's surface and the cloudy atmosphere, and flux computations with an established radiative transfer model. The computed global mean radiative forcing by line‐shaped contrails is ∼0.02 Wm −2 in 1992 and ∼0.1 Wm −2 in 2050. At northern mid‐latitudes, the zonal mean forcing is five times larger than the global mean. Diffuse contrails and indirect effects of aircraft emissions on natural cirrus are not included in this study. Thus, the results are considered a minimum estimate of contrail effects.