AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF CONSTANT AND ADAPTIVE COMPUTER FORECASTING MODELS FOR INVENTORY CONTROL

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study compares the performance of one constant model with two adaptive models. MAD and bias were used as criteria for evaluating performance. The results of testing the adaptive models with the constant model were contrary to the expected better performance of the adaptive models; no significant differences were found between the models over known horizontal, trend, and seasonal demand patterns. However, some of the practical advantages of adaptive forecasting models in business suggest their continued use.