Tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and hurricane development

Abstract

The anomalously strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector during the recent years led to a controversy about the impact of global warming on hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector. Here we show that the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (Indo‐Pacific) is a key parameter in controlling the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, an important quantity for hurricane activity. The stronger warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to that of the Indo‐Pacific during the most recent years drove reduced vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and is thus responsible for the strong hurricane activity observed. In 2006, however, the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans is much reduced, which explains the relatively weak hurricane season.