Real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble forecasts in map d-phase

Abstract

Abstract - A hydrological ensemble prediction system for the Alpine region was setup and tested in real-time from June to November 2007. Several flood forecasting chains, combining meteorological ensemble predictions, surface measurements or radar data and hydrological models issued ensemble runoff forecasts for a number of basins. The interaction with end users and their feedback was useful to better understand potentials and limitations of such flood forecasting systems. Results for basins where operational forecasts were issued within the MAP D-PHASE project are presented.