Climate Change and Damage from Extreme Weather Events

Abstract

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl et al., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis & Assessment Product 3.3, Washington, DC, 2008. 2. “In the non-stationary case, a trend in the mean affecting the entire data set must imply a trend in extreme events,” p. 306 from M. Nogaj, S. Parey, and D. Dacunha-Castelle, “Non-Stationary Extreme Models and a Climatic Application,” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 14 (June 25, 2007): 305–316;. 3. P. C. D. Milly, J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer, “Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?,” Science 319 (2008): 573–574. 4. R. E. Livezey, K. Y. Vinnikov, and M. M. Timofeyeva, “Estimation and Extrapolation of Climate Normals and Climatic Trends,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46 (2007): 1759–1776. 5. National Research Council, Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, “Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate” (Washington, DC: National Research Council, 2009), p. S-1. 6. D. L. James Valverde, Jr., “Hurricane Risk in New York City and Long Island,” Insurance Information Institute, 24 February 2006. 7. Data accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/basics/return/shtml. 8. P. J. Webster et al., “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment,” Science 309 (2005): 1844–1846. 9. Union of Concerned Scientists, “Hurricanes in a Warmer World,” Cambridge, MA, 2006. 10. K. A. Emanuel, “The Dependence of Hurricane Intensity on Climate,” Nature 326, no. 6112 (1987): 483–485; K. A. Emanuel, “Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years,” Nature 436 (2005): 686–688; K. A. Emanuel, Divine Wind (New York: Oxford Univ. Press, 2005) 11. C. W. Landsea, B. A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J. A. Knaff, “Can We Detect Trends in Extreme Tropical Cyclones?,” Science 313 (2006): 452–454. 12. J. P. Kossin et al., “A Globally Consistent Reanalysis of Hurricane Variability and Trends,” Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007): L04815. 13. “The intensity of tropical cyclones is likely to increase, with larger peak windspeeds, more heavy rainfall and a greater risk of storm surges.” p. 39 in “RMS and the U.S. Hurricane Model Overview,” (Hackensack, NJ: Risk Management Solutions, 21 May 2009). 14. R. Sriverand M. Huber, “Low Frequency Variability in Globally Integrated Tropical Cyclone power dissipation,” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L11705. 15. K. S. Casey and P. Cornillon, “Global and Regional Sea Surface Temperatures,” Journal of Climate 14 (2001): 3801–3818. 16. R. Tisdale, “The Impact of the North Atlantic and Volcanic Aerosols on Short-term Global Sea-Surface Temperature Trends,” accessed at http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02. 17. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, “Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region,” Washington, DC, 15 January 2009. 18. K. M. Clark, CEO AIR Worldwide Corporation, “Major Hurricane Strikes the Northeast: How Large Will the Losses Be?,” presentation to the Northeast Hurricane Conference, 19 July 2006. 19. W. Nordhaus, “The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States,” 21 December 2006; accessed at http://nordhaus.yale.edu/hurr_122106.pdf. 20. See H. C. Kunreuther and E. O. Michel-Kerjan, At War with the Weather (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2009). 21. R. J. Barro, “Rare Disasters, Asset Prices and Welfare Costs,” American Economic Review 99, no. 1 (2009): 243–264. 22. See, for example, United States Geological Survey, “Climate Change and Water Resources: A Federal Perspective,” Washington, DC, 2008. 23. It is assumed that at wind speeds of 30 mph or below, there are no damages, and at wind speeds above 130 mph, there would be a total loss of project income, and between those limits damages would be proportional to the Carvill index. 24. R. Repetto, “The Climate Crisis and the Adaptation Myth,” Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, available at http://environment.research.yale.edu/documents/downloads/v-z/WorkingPaper13.pdfa.