Do rainfall conditions push or pull rural migrants: evidence from Malawi

Abstract

Abstract This article uses nationally representative data from Malawi's 2004/05 Integrated Household Survey (IHS2) to examine whether rainfall conditions influence a rural worker's decision to make a long‐term move to an urban or another rural area. Results of a Full Information Maximum Likelihood regression model reveal that (1) rainfall shocks have a negative association with rural out‐migration, (2) migrants choose to move to communities where rainfall variability and drought probability are lower, and (3) rainfall shocks have larger negative effects on the consumption of recent migrants than on the consumption of long‐time residents.