How Fast Has Chinese Industry Grown?—Measuring The Real Output Of Chinese Industry, 1949–97

Abstract

The motivation of this study is to test the widely accepted but never tested hypothesis that Chinese official statistics on growth rates may contain serious upward biases. By adopting a Laspeyres quantity index approach to the recently available official physical output data at commodity level, we have constructed an independent output index for Chinese industry, and produced a unique data set for the value added of 17 major industrial branches at 1987 prices for the period 1949–97. This study has, for the first time, systematically tested this hypothesis with supportive results. It implies that any growth accounting study using the official growth rates may have exaggerated the productivity performance of Chinese industry.