Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange Rate Nexus: The Case of India

Abstract

The paper investigates the causal nexus between gold price, stock price and exchange rate in India using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Granger causality test on monthly time series data for the period from June 1990 to April 2014. The results reveal that gold price and stock price tend to have long-run relationship with exchange rate in India. Besides, there is no evidence of stable long-run cointegration relationship between stock price and gold price in India. The findings also indicate that there exists no causality from gold price to stock price or vice versa in the short run. It can thus be concluded that domestic gold price does not contain any significant information to forecast stock prices in India.