The sources of error in Brass's method for estimating child survival: the case of Bangladesh

Abstract

Abstract Brass's method for estimating child mortality is based on an ingeniously simplified model. However, it frequently leads to values of q(x) that are not consistent with each other. This is most obvious for estimates of q(1). This paper examines the extent to which such inconsistencies are caused by simplifications in the model. Three assumptions are relaxed by adjusting for differences in infant mortality by birth order, taking account of annual fluctuations in mortality, and using a different age pattern of fertility for each cohort. These adjustments are applied to data from the 1974 Bangladesh Retrospective Survey of Fertility and Mortality and the 1975 Bangladesh Fertility Survey in which additional data from the Cholera Research Laboratory are used. The resulting estimates are more consistent both internally and with estimates from other surveys and by other procedures.