Recidivism and Survival Time: Racial Disparity among Jail Ex-Inmates

Abstract

Incarcerated men, most of whom are recidivists, are disproportionately black. Much literature about prison ex-inmates reports on this disparity, yet little is known about racial disparity in recidivism rates among jail ex-inmates. This study examined recidivism rates and survival time (period from release date to rearrest) among male ex-inmates released from the Allegheny County Jail in Pennsylvania during 2003 who were tracked for three years (N = 12,545). Recidivism rates were compared across race using chi-square tests. Survival time was analyzed using survival analysis including Kaplan-Meier estimation with log-rank test and Cox's proportional hazard model. Findings showed that the overall three-year recidivism rate was 55.9%, and black men recidivated at a significantly higher rate than white men. Survival analysis also attested to racial disparity in recidivism, and black men recidivated in a shorter time frame than their white peers with the covariates age at release and length of stay in jail controlled. Interaction effects of race and the covariates were found to be significant. Research, policy, and practice implications are presented. KEY WORDS: incarceration; jail; racial disparity; recidivism; survival time ********** The increasing incarceration and recidivism rates in the United States marked by pronounced racial disparity are recognized economic and social burdens that need to be reversed (Pew Center on the States, 2009).Twenty-five percent of the world's inmates are in U.S. prisons and jails--despite the United States comprising only 5% of the total world population (International Center for Prison Studies, 2008). Most inmates are recidivists, who are disproportionately black men (Sabol, Minton, & Harrison, 2007). The U.S. aggregated corrections costs rose from $12 billion in 1987 to $49 billion in 2007--$20 billion of which was spent on jails and local criminal justice (Hughes, 2006). Annually, an estimated 12 million people cycle in and out of nearly 3,500 U.S. jails (Beck, 2006). In 2008, 785,556 individuals were in jail at midyear, up from an average daily population of 403,019 in 1990 (Jail Inmates in 1994, 1994; Minton & Sabol, 2009). Of the 2008 jail population, 42.5% were white men and 39.2% were black men, even though of the total U.S. population only about 6% were black men and 28% were white men (McKinnon & Bennett, 2005). More than 97% of prison and jail inmates are eventually released and need to reintegrate into their communities (Sabol & Couture, 2008; Sabol M Mears, Wang, Hay, & Bales, 2008). …