Preventive Intervention: Assessing its Effects on the Trajectories of Delinquency and Testing for Mediational Processes

Abstract

This study assessed the impact of a prevention program on the growth of delinquency from 13 to 16 years of age and examined whether its impact operated through a chain of events compatible with many developmental models. The multicomponent prevention program targeted disruptive, low socioeconomic status boys when they were aged 7 through 9 years. A growth-curve analysis showed that the level of delinquency for the prevention group was lower at 13 years (i.e., the intercept) than in the control group. There was, however, no direct effect of the program on the growth (i.e., the slope) of delinquency from 13 through 16 years of age. Path analysis showed that reduction in disruptiveness and increase in parental supervision by age 11, as well as association with nondeviant peers by age 12, were part of a chain of events that was found to mediate the effect of the program on the initial level of delinquency at 13 years. The analysis also showed that the program had an indirect effect through these variables on the growth of delinquency from 13 to 16 years of age. The discussion focuses on the possibility of using prevention studies to validate developmental models.