Energy Procedia · 2012 · 15 citations · 2 references
Natural SciencesMeteorologyForecastingTime Series AnalysisWeather ForecastingChaos TheoryShort-term ForecastingTime Series ForecastingTime Series PredictionWind Energy SystemsWind ForecastingChaotic Time Series AnalysisPrediction Model DevelopmentRenewable Energy ForecastingShort-term Energy ForecastingTime Series Forecasting For WindVery Short-term Wind ForecastingWind Power ForecastingWind Power Systems
In this paper, we propose a method to predict ultra-short term wind power production with chaotic time series. Through analysis of the data measured from real wind farm, the ultra-short term prediction model of wind power is established based on the space theory of chaotic time series phase. The wind power of a real wind farm in northeast China in some future time including 15 m, 30 m and 1 h are predicted by the prediction model finally. Test results are presented in the paper.
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