Identification of trend and probability distribution for time series of annual peak flow in Tapi Basin, India

Abstract

This study deals with trend analysis of observed annual peak flow time series data at four stream gauging stations in the Tapi Basin. Innovative trend analysis, recently proposed by Şen, and Mann Kendall test are used to ascertain the trend in extreme annual flow (flood) at aforesaid gauging stations in the Tapi Basin. Also, the time series of extreme flow data have been checked for their serial correlation and, subsequently, flood frequency analysis is undertaken to obtain floods of different return periods. The fitted probability distributions are also used to predict extreme flow into the Ukai Reservoir on the basis of information from upstream gauging stations. The methodology has also been used to predict runoff into the reservoir from the unguaged catchments.