The Integrative Time-Dependent Modeling of the Reliability and Failure of the Causes of Drivers’ Error Leading to Road Accidents

Abstract

Nowadays, the human error is usually identified as the conclusive cause of investigations in road accidents. The human although is the person in control of vehicle until the moment of crash but it has to be understood that the human is under continued impact by various factors including road environment, vehicle and human’s state, abilities and conduct. The current advances in design of vehicle and roads have been intended to provide drivers with extra comfort with less physical and mental efforts, whereas the fatigue imposed on driver is just being transformed from over-load fatigue to under-load fatigue and boredom. A representational model to illustrate the relationships between design and condition of vehicle and road as well as driver’s condition and state on fatigue and the human error leading to accidents has been developed. Thereafter, the stochastic mathematical models based on time-dependent failure rates were developed to make prediction on the road transportation reliability and failure probabilities due to each cause (vehicle, road environment, human due to fatigue, and human due to non fatigue factors). Furthermore, the supportive assessment methodology and models to assess and predict the failure rates of driver due to each category of causes were developed and proposed.