Regression Estimates in Federal Welfare Quality Control Programs

Abstract

Abstract States that administer federal family welfare programs review samples of the beneficiaries to guide corrective actions. Federal agencies review subsamples of the state samples to compute overpayment error rates using a regression estimator. These federal estimates make state-to-state comparisons of quality possible and are also used for fiscal sanctions. Such applications of the regression estimator have been widely challenged. We show that the regression estimates and estimates of their variances are closely unbiased, and we examine their statistical characteristics. We also comment on the recent reports of the National Research Council Panel on Quality Control of Family Assistance Programs.