Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions

TLDR

Aviation emissions impact surface air quality at multiple scales, from near‑airport pollution peaks to intercontinental contamination. This study aims to quantify the air‑quality and human‑health impacts of aviation across all these scales. A multi‑scale modeling framework was employed, simulating plume‑driven local, near‑airport, regional, and global dispersion and chemistry. The analysis estimates that aviation causes about 16,000 premature deaths per year, with LTO emissions contributing a quarter, and imposes roughly $21 billion in annual health costs comparable to climate damages and exceeding accident and noise costs.

Abstract

Aviation emissions impact surface air quality at multiple scales—from near-airport pollution peaks associated with airport landing and take off (LTO) emissions, to intercontinental pollution attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. Previous studies have quantified aviation's air quality impacts around a specific airport, in a specific region, or at the global scale. However, no study has assessed the air quality and human health impacts of aviation, capturing effects on all aforementioned scales. This study uses a multi-scale modeling approach to quantify and monetize the air quality impact of civil aviation emissions, approximating effects of aircraft plume dynamics-related local dispersion (∼1 km), near-airport dispersion (∼10 km), regional (∼1000 km) and global (∼10 000 km) scale chemistry and transport. We use concentration-response functions to estimate premature deaths due to population exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and ozone, finding that aviation emissions cause ∼16 000 (90% CI: 8300–24 000) premature deaths per year. Of these, LTO emissions contribute a quarter. Our estimate shows that premature deaths due to long-term exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and O3 lead to costs of ∼$21 bn per year. We compare these costs to other societal costs of aviation and find that they are on the same order of magnitude as global aviation-attributable climate costs, and one order of magnitude larger than aviation-attributable accident and noise costs.