Toward a Political Model of Incarceration: A Time-Series Examination of Multiple Explanations for Prison Admission Rates

Abstract

This study examines yearly shifts in prison admissions since 1950. The effects of political and economic determinants are investigated with measures of economic inequality, political variables, and unemployment. The delayed effects of broken families are measured with a lagged moving average of out-of-wedlock births. The findings show that inequality due to the presence of the rich and past out-of-wedlock birth rates matter, but unemployment is not related to prison admissions. The strength of the Republican Party and a presidential election year dummy also explain shifts in incarcerations. The results suggest that earlier work omitted theoretically important explanations.