A simple method of simulating the future frontal position of Briksdalsbreen, western Norway

Abstract

To simulate future mass balance and frontal variations of Briksdalsbreen in western Norway, a degree-day model based on temperature and precipitation data from Bergen has been used. Briksdalsbreen is a steep, western outlet glacier from Jostedalsbreen. The calculated relationship between annual glacier front variation and mass balance gives best correlation with a frontal time lag of 3 years, which is in accordance with previous studies. Climate scenarios from the Norwegian RegClim project have been implemented in the model. Applying the RegClim future climate (summer temperature and winter precipitation) scenarios, our calculations indicate that Briksdalsbreen may retreat 2—2.5 km from the 1963 position within the termination of the twenty-first century. The main icefall may thus disappear and the upper part of the glacier will exist as a plateau glacier. The accumulation area may thus consist of a small plateau and the glacier will therefore be sensitive to mass balance changes. Work is in progress to implement a dynamic glacier model for future studies.