ON THE RELATIONSHIP OF PAST TO FUTURE PARTICIPATION IN DELINQUENCY

Abstract

Among the best documented empirical regularities in criminology is the positive association between past and future delinquency and criminality. In this paper, we examine alternative interpretations of this association. One is that prior participation has a genuine behavioral impact on the individual. Prior participation may, for example, reduce inhibitions against engaging in delinquent activity. Such an effect is termed state dependence. A second explanation is that individuals differ in unmeasured delinquent propensity and this unmeasured propensity is persistent over time. This second explanation is a consequence of population heterogeneity. Using a three‐wave panel data set, we attempt to distinguish these two interpretations of the positive association between past and future delinquency. Our results suggest that the positive association is principally due to a state‐dependent influence. Theoretical implications and directions for future research are also discussed.