Tracing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers, 1854–2010

TLDR

The carbon major entities hold fossil fuel reserves that, if emitted, would intensify anthropogenic climate change. The study aims to quantify historic emissions from major producers to inform public policy. The authors analyzed production records of 90 major fossil fuel and cement producers from 1854–2010, tracing 914 GtCO₂e of emissions—including fuel combustion, cement process CO₂, flaring, venting, and fugitive methane—using carbon‑content accounting. They traced 315 GtCO₂e to investor‑owned, 288 GtCO₂e to state‑owned, and 312 GtCO₂e to nation‑state producers, with half of these emissions occurring since 1986.

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the historic fossil fuel and cement production records of the 50 leading investor-owned, 31 state-owned, and 9 nation-state producers of oil, natural gas, coal, and cement from as early as 1854 to 2010. This analysis traces emissions totaling 914 GtCO2e—63 % of cumulative worldwide emissions of industrial CO2 and methane between 1751 and 2010—to the 90 "carbon major" entities based on the carbon content of marketed hydrocarbon fuels (subtracting for non-energy uses), process CO2 from cement manufacture, CO2 from flaring, venting, and own fuel use, and fugitive or vented methane. Cumulatively, emissions of 315 GtCO2e have been traced to investor-owned entities, 288 GtCO2e to state-owned enterprises, and 312 GtCO2e to nation-states. Of these emissions, half has been emitted since 1986. The carbon major entities possess fossil fuel reserves that will, if produced and emitted, intensify anthropogenic climate change. The purpose of the analysis is to understand the historic emissions as a factual matter, and to invite consideration of their possible relevance to public policy.