Long term fate of anthropogenic carbon

Abstract

Two earth‐system models of intermediate complexity are used to study the long term response to an input of 5000 Pg of carbon into the atmosphere. About 75% of CO 2 emissions have an average perturbation lifetime of 1800 years and 25% have lifetimes much longer than 5000 years. In the simulations, higher levels of atmospheric CO 2 remain in the atmosphere than predicted by previous experiments and the average perturbation lifetime of atmospheric CO 2 for this level of emissions is much longer than the 300–400 years proposed by other studies. At year 6800, CO 2 concentrations between about 960 to 1440 ppmv result in global surface temperature increases between 6 and 8°C. There is also significant surface ocean acidification, with pH decreasing from 8.16 to 7.46 units between years 2000 and 2300.