Intervention analysis in water resources

Abstract

Intervention analysis is the stochastic transfer function modeling of natural or man‐induced interventions on the mean level of a time series. The mathematics of intervention analysis is presented followed by a systematic method of analysis that is used to analyze the effect of the Aswan dam on the average annual flows of the Nile River. The analysis shows that a significant drop in the flow occurred in 1903 when the dam was brought into operation. Transfer function parameter estimates statistically describe the intervention effect while the stochastic intervention model developed can be used for forecasting and simulation. The authors maintain that the potential of intervention analysis in water resources is extensive.