Prediction of the diurnal warming of sea surface temperature using an atmosphere‐ocean mixed layer coupled model

Abstract

An atmosphere‐ocean mixed layer coupled model is developed to predict the diurnal variability of sea surface temperature (SST). For this purpose, a new mixed layer model is developed, which is able to reproduce realistic temperature profiles under the various atmospheric conditions, ranging from the formation of a diurnal thermocline under strong wind to the appearance of strong near surface stratification under weak wind. The predicted diurnal warming of SST (ΔSST) from the model is compared with satellite and buoy data in various aspects, including scatterplots, time series, and probability density functions of ΔSST, in order to examine the predictability. The model performance is also compared with other model results. In addition the diurnal variation of temperature profiles below the sea surface, whose information is not available from satellite data, is investigated based on model output.