On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950–2000

TLDR

The late twentieth century experienced unprecedented global demographic change, marked by sharp declines in mortality and fertility across many developing nations. The study evaluates how these shifts have driven worldwide convergence of demographic patterns. The authors analyze fertility, mortality, and population size across countries, disaggregating China and India into provinces, and map world population shares by life expectancy and total fertility for the early 1950s, late 1970s, and around 2000. The resulting graphs and tables provide a novel visual representation of demographic convergence over the past five decades.

Abstract

The second half of the twentieth century saw global demographic change of unprecedented magnitude, with pronounced falls in both mortality and fertility in many developing countries. This article assesses the extent to which these changes have led to the convergence of demographic patterns around the world. It considers not just the levels of fertility and mortality in each country at different points in time, but also the size of each population. It also disaggregates China and India into their constituent provinces and states in order to provide estimates for units more typical of the size of the populations of other countries. The note presents proportions of the world's population according to the levels of life expectancy and total fertility they experienced in the early 1950s, the late 1970s, and around 2000. The graphs and tables thus produced give a convenient and novel way to view the scale and nature of demographic convergence over the last 50 years.