International Journal of Climatology · 2002 · 140 citations · 38 references
Natural SciencesEarth SciencesHydrologyClimate ScienceClimatologyHydrologic ModelingClimate ChangeHydrologic CycleHydrologic ExtremesHydrological CycleHydrological ModelingPrecipitationClimate Change HydrologyClimate Change Impacts On Hydrologic ExtremesClimate Change Impacts On Precipitation ExtremesClimate Change Impacts On RunoffDaily Precipitation ExtremesHeavy Rainfall EventsHorizontal ResolutionHydrological Cycle Modeling
The study investigates changes in variability and extremes of the hydrological cycle using two 30‑year high‑resolution general circulation model simulations. One simulation represents present‑day climate, the other a scenario with doubled atmospheric greenhouse‑gas concentrations. The warmer climate increases the probability of heavy precipitation, extends extremely long dry spells at mid‑latitudes, alters high‑latitude runoff mainly through snow‑budget changes, and produces statistically significant shifts in 10‑year return values for 8 of 14 major rivers, with six showing increases and two decreases. © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.
Abstract Changes in variability and extremes of the hydrological cycle are studied in two 30 year simulations using a general circulation model at high horizontal resolution. The simulations represent the present‐day climate and a period in which the radiative forcing corresponds to a doubling of the present‐day concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In most regions and seasons the probability density function of daily precipitation experiences a stretching associated with a higher probability of heavy precipitation events in the warmer climate. Whereas extremely long wet spells show only moderate changes, the extremely long dry spells are extended at middle latitudes over most land areas. At high latitudes the changes in annual maximum river runoff are mainly controlled by changes in snow budget. Eight out of 14 selected major rivers show a statistically significant change in 10 year return values of the annual maximum discharge. In two cases a significant decrease is found and in six cases there is a significant increase. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society
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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
Philip H. Ramsey, Daniel S. Wilks · Technometrics · 1996 · 7.7K citations