Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center

TLDR

The National Hurricane Center provides analyses, forecasts, and warnings across the North Atlantic and Pacific, and recent advances in observation, numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools have improved forecast accuracy and lead times, though limitations remain. This paper reviews the current hurricane warning program, highlights recent improvements enabled by science and technology, and outlines future opportunities to address remaining challenges.

Abstract

Abstract The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools and support systems over the past 15–20 yr have enabled the center to make more accurate forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide new products and services. Important limitations, however, persist. This paper discusses the current workings and state of the nation’s hurricane warning program, and highlights recent improvements and the enabling science and technology. It concludes with a look ahead at opportunities to address challenges.