Racial Transition and White-Voter Support for Black Candidates in Urban Elections

Abstract

Traditional black threat theory predicts an inverse relationship between the size of a jurisdiction’s black population and white crossover voting. Recently, a modified black threat theory suggests that it may be more reasonable to expect a curvilinear U-shaped relationship between black density and white crossover voting, due to changes in both racial composition and white group status. Using Gary King’s Ecological Inference (EI) procedure to estimate white crossover voting at the election unit level through precinct-level data, this study examines the relationship between black density and white crossover voting across 29 biracial elections in New Orleans between 1977 and 1998. Results of our analysis support neither a negative, nor a U-shaped relationship. Rather, the shape of the relationship is an upward half-U. We explain this nonlinear relationship by suggesting that as blacks become a majority, white voters begin to cast votes for black candidates in a strategic manner.