Defensive pessimism, optimism, and stimulating alternatives: Some ups and downs of prefactual and counterfactual thinking.

TLDR

Prefactual and counterfactual thinking strategies vary across individuals, with defensive pessimists and optimists showing distinct patterns. The study examined how defensive pessimists and optimists use prefactual and counterfactual mental simulations across four experiments. Defensive pessimists favored upward prefactual thinking while optimists favored downward counterfactual thinking, and these preferences and reactions to success or failure were further influenced by opportunities for prefactual reflection and a second attempt.

Abstract

Four studies investigated the prefactual (alternative preoutcome predictions) and counterfactual (alternative postoutcome "what might have beens") mental simulations of defensive pessimists and optimists. In Study 1, defensive pessimists engaged in upward (better than expected) prefactual thinking, whereas optimists engaged in downward (worse than actuality) counterfactual thinking in reaction to a course exam. In Study 2, defensive pessimists preferred upward prefactual thinking and optimists preferred no prefactual thinking when prefactual thoughts were directly manipulated. In Studies 3 and 4, defensive pessimists and optimists differed in reactions to manipulated success and failure, and these reactions were further moderated by the opportunity to engage in prefactual thinking and the possibility of a second try. Individual differences in strategies of prefactual and counterfactual thinking are discussed.