East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation?

Abstract

This article describes fertility patterns in East Germany after unification in November 1989 and three potential scenarios for future fertility regimes. The authors conclude that it is likely that the level and timing of fertility in East Germany will adjust in the future to the West Germany pattern. It is assumed in the proposed model that the adjustment path is determined by the West German age specific fertility patterns of 1994. The first cohort to satisfy these assumptions was born in 1975. This means that the East German fertility rate will be slow to recover in the next 10-15 years. Although many describe the sharp fertility decline after reunification as a demographic shock the authors interpret the short term freeze reaction as a first move toward a medium-term adaptation to West German fertility. This studys analysis is based on birth rates during 1960-89 and the pattern of change during 1990-94 in East Germany. The fertility pattern was one of rapid fertility decline from 2.5 children in 1960 to 2.1 children in 1970. By 1990 fertility was 1.4 well below replacement fertility. During the late 1980s the gap between the two parts of Germany was closing. Distinct differences between East and West German fertility are apparent in the fertility decline since the 1960s the average age of childbearing and the fertility patterns among higher educated women. The differences lend support to the view that fertility is influenced by a number of individual and social factors and two distinct social and institutional systems. Early marriage and family formation in the East were the only means of gaining independence from parents and getting an apartment. State secured employment only helped people plan for the future. A number of demographic measures changed markedly after unification. There is evidence from the historical record that compensation is made for demographic crises.