A simple model of breast carcinoma growth may provide explanations for observations of apparently complex phenomena

Abstract

Even if the authors' assumptions are incorrect, their model made it clear that, to diagnose several breast carcinomas per 1000 women each year means that there have to be many more undetected carcinomas in the population to sustain the rate of detection. Although the model did not prove that DCIS may become potentially invasive and lethal, it did demonstrate that, even if all of these in situ lesions become invasive and lethal, many more DCIS lesions would have to be expected in the population than the number of invasive carcinomas detected each year and the number of deaths from breast carcinoma each year. Furthermore, the model provided a simple, purely mechanical illustration that may explain the preponderance of faster growing breast carcinomas among very young women and the preponderance of slower growing tumors among elderly women.