Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008

TLDR

Global CO₂ emissions have continued to rise despite regional climate policies, and the stabilization of emissions in developed countries may be partly due to increasing imports from developing countries. The study aims to quantify the growth in emission transfers through international trade. The authors constructed a trade‑linked global database of CO₂ emissions for 113 countries and 57 economic sectors spanning 1990–2008. The analysis shows that emissions from traded goods rose from 4.3 to 7.8 Gt CO₂ (20 % to 26 % of global) between 1990 and 2008, that developed countries’ consumption‑based emissions grew faster than their territorial emissions largely due to non‑energy‑intensive manufacturing, and that net transfers from developing to developed countries increased from 0.4 to 1.6 Gt CO₂—exceeding Kyoto Protocol reductions—highlighting international trade as a key driver of emission changes and underscoring the need for countries to monitor trade‑linked emissions.

Abstract

Despite the emergence of regional climate policies, growth in global CO(2) emissions has remained strong. From 1990 to 2008 CO(2) emissions in developed countries (defined as countries with emission-reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol, Annex B) have stabilized, but emissions in developing countries (non-Annex B) have doubled. Some studies suggest that the stabilization of emissions in developed countries was partially because of growing imports from developing countries. To quantify the growth in emission transfers via international trade, we developed a trade-linked global database for CO(2) emissions covering 113 countries and 57 economic sectors from 1990 to 2008. We find that the emissions from the production of traded goods and services have increased from 4.3 Gt CO(2) in 1990 (20% of global emissions) to 7.8 Gt CO(2) in 2008 (26%). Most developed countries have increased their consumption-based emissions faster than their territorial emissions, and non-energy-intensive manufacturing had a key role in the emission transfers. The net emission transfers via international trade from developing to developed countries increased from 0.4 Gt CO(2) in 1990 to 1.6 Gt CO(2) in 2008, which exceeds the Kyoto Protocol emission reductions. Our results indicate that international trade is a significant factor in explaining the change in emissions in many countries, from both a production and consumption perspective. We suggest that countries monitor emission transfers via international trade, in addition to territorial emissions, to ensure progress toward stabilization of global greenhouse gas emissions.