Quantitative prediction of radiation belt electrons at geostationary orbit based on solar wind measurements

Abstract

Solar wind measurements are used to predict the MeV electron radiation belt flux at the position of geostationary orbit. Using a model based on the standard radial diffusion equation, a prediction efficiency of 0.81 and a linear correlation of 0.90 were achieved for the years 1995–1996 for the logarithm of average daily flux. Model parameters based on the years 1995‐1996 gave a prediction efficiency and a linear correlation for the years 1995–1999 of 0.59 and 0.80, respectively. The radial diffusion equation is solved after making the diffusion coefficient a function of the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field. The solar wind velocity is the most important parameter governing relativistic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. The model also provides a physical explanation to several long standing mysteries of the variation of the MeV electrons.