Development and Initial Validation of a Risk Score for Predicting In‐Hospital and 1‐Year Mortality in Patients With Hip Fractures

Abstract

The median age of the cohort was 82 years, 71% were female, and 26% had more than four prefracture co-morbidities. In-hospital mortality was 6.3%; 10.2% for men and 4.7% for women (adjusted odds ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.4). Mortality at 1 year was 30.8%; 37.5% for men and 28.2% for women (adjusted p < 0.001). Older age, male sex, long-term care residence, and 10 different co-morbidities were independently associated with mortality. Risk-adjustment models based on these variables had excellent accuracy for predicting mortality in-hospital (c-statistic = 0.82) and at 1 year (c-statistic = 0.74). We conclude that 1 in 15 elderly patients with hip fracture will die during hospitalization, and almost one-third of those who survive to discharge will die within the year. The determinants of mortality were primarily older age, male sex, and prefracture co-morbidities. Our hip fracture-specific risk-adjustment tool is pragmatic and reliable, and after further validation, may be useful for comparing outcomes across different hospitals or regions.