Empirical model for rapid macroseismic intensities prediction in Guadeloupe and Martinique

Abstract

We describe a simple model for prediction of macroseismic intensities adapted to Guadeloupe and Martinique (Lesser Antilles), based on a combination of peak ground acceleration (PGA) predictive equation and a forward relation between acceleration and intensity. The PGA predictive equation is built from a 3-parameter functional form constrained by measurements from permanent accelerometer stations, mostly associated with Les Saintes crustal earthquake (21/11/2004, <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> <mml:mi>w</mml:mi> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>6.3</mml:mn> </mml:math> ) and its many aftershocks. The forward intensity model is checked on a database of recent instrumental events of various origins with magnitudes 1.6 to 7.4, distances from 4 to 300 km, and observed intensities from I to VIII. Global sigma residual equals 0.8 in the MSK scale, suggesting a larger applicability range than the intermediate PGA predictive equation. The model is presently used by the French Lesser Antilles observatories to produce automatic reports for earthquakes potentially felt.