1995 · 16 citations · 2 references
EngineeringDrilling FluidsPerformance PredictionsPetroleum Production EngineeringCase Study ModelsRisk AnalysisRank WildcatDrillingField DevelopmentGeotechnical EngineeringDissimilar Case StudiesData ScienceRisk ManagementManagementStatisticsDrilling EngineeringDirect DrillingPredictive AnalyticsForecastingRisk AssessmentFormation EvaluationConstruction ManagementRisk Analysis (Business)Construction EngineeringCase Studies
ABSTRACT This paper presents two predictive drilling performance models, using two dissimilar case studies to illustrate some of the appropriate techniques for developing such models. Both case study models utilize risk analysis and incorporate Monte Carlo simulation and statistical analysis of historical drilling data to generate more representative, risked, AFE estimates. The first model was developed for a development well in a mature area. The second case study, for a rank wildcat, incorporates limited "nearby" well data and historical data pertaining to analogous exploration wells, and demonstrates the usefulness of a large database from which we can draw representative distributions.
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