A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

TLDR

The framework builds on shared socio‑economic pathways and policy assumptions that are detailed in other papers in this special issue. The paper introduces a scenario matrix architecture to support the development of new climate change research scenarios. The matrix is defined by two axes: radiative forcing levels via representative concentration pathways and plausible future socio‑economic trajectories via shared pathways. The matrix enables evaluation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, their costs, risks, trade‑offs, and synergies, and serves as a guide for scenario development at multiple scales and a heuristic for classifying scenarios.

Abstract

Abstract This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.