Integration of multicriteria evaluation and cellular automata methods for landslide simulation modelling

Abstract

The representation and modelling of physical and natural systems are mostly implemented using partial differential equations. Physical processes such as flooding, tsunamis, avalanches, earthquakes and landslides undeniably possess complex systems behaviour. Modelling such dynamic phenomena can be adequately addressed by using geocomplexity – complex systems theory and cellular automata (CA). This study develops a novel approach that couples geographic information systems (GIS), multicriteria evaluation (MCE) and CA to simulate shallow landslide flows occurring in urban areas. The landslide susceptibility map produced from the MCE model was used as one input for the CA model. The high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) is used to calculate topographic variables such as slope gradient, aspect gradient, stream power index, topographic wetness index, and flow direction which were all used in model design. The developed MCE-CA simulation model was tested on historical landslide data in Metro Vancouver, Canada. The spatial extents of the landslide simulations were compared with actual data to test the model simulation outcomes. The developed model has a potential to become useful tool that can aid urban planners and emergency workers in identifying and mitigating threats due to landslides.