Code red worm propagation modeling and analysis

Abstract

The Code Red worm incident of July 2001 has stimulated activities to model and analyze Internet worm propagation. In this paper we provide a careful analysis of Code Red propagation by accounting for two factors: one is the dynamic countermeasures taken by ISPs and users; the other is the slowed down worm infection rate because Code Red rampant propagation caused congestion and troubles to some routers. Based on the classical epidemic Kermack-Mckendrick model, we derive a general Internet worm model called the two-factor worm model. Simulations and numerical solutions of the two-factor worm model match the observed data of Code Red worm better than previous models do. This model leads to a better understanding and prediction of the scale and speed of Internet worm spreading.