Understanding trends in inter‐city rail traffic in Great Britain

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an analysis of British Rail ticket sales data on routes linking the main conurbations over the years 1972–1981. It is seen that experience varies substantially across the sector. Provincial routes of less than 100 miles have experienced the greatest decline, but at the same time they exhibit the lowest fares elasticity. Longer routes to London have a somewhat higher fares elasticity and are particularly sensitive to the state of the economy; they have however enjoyed the traffic growth stimulated by the introduction of the High Speed Train. Longer provincial routes, which are dominated by leisure traffic, have the highest fares elasticities, and are probably damaged rather than helped by rising prosperity through the effect on car ownership.