Evaluation of Probability of Bridge Damage as a Result of Terrorist Attack

Abstract

Abstract The paper presents an approach for evaluation of the likelihood of damage to the transportation infrastructure in the context of the terrorist attacks on the example of a number of bridges located in Wrocław (Poland). Assuming that there will be only one bridge destroyed in a given area, in order to determine the probability of damage to one of the objects, there was one of multi-criteria optimization methods used, i.e. the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The main advantage of the analysis carried out was that the accepted hierarchy of decision-making options could be easily explained in a scientific manner, not only with reference to personal knowledge, experience, and intuition.