Impact of the Illinois Seat Belt Use Law on Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries

Abstract

Consideration of statistical techniques to analyze the impact of seat belt use laws on traffic accidents and consequences suggests that the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) method is preferable. This approach was applied to monthly fatalities, injuries classified by level of severity, and total accidents in Illinois. The most serious injuries did decline by over 500 per month. The ARIMA model did not indicate an overall increase in accidents or injuries, in contrast to a simple before-after comparison. It is estimated conservatively that the seat belt law provides benefits of $15 million per month in Illinois.