Tools for embracing uncertainty in the management of the cod fishery of NAFO divisions 2J+3KL

Abstract

Algorithms for estimating the effect of spawning-stock biomass on the probability distribution of recruitment are used to answer questions about the cod stock of the northern Grand Banks and southern Labrador Sea, in a way that takes account of intrinsic variability and uncertainty. We re-evaluate prospects for past rebuilding strategies, examine events that occurred in the last decade, speculate about possible events if the stock had been managed differently, and use knowledge of recent stock sizes to estimate the size of year classes not yet seen.