Consequences of helminth aggregation for the dynamics of schistosomiasis

Abstract

The distribution of schistosome worms among their human hosts is not random but aggregated. The consequences of introducing aggregation into models of schistosomiasis transmission, especially that of Macdonald, are explored. There are two possibilities for aggregation, with the sexes distributed either independently or together. Both have profound though differing effects on the breakpoint concept, which is largely destroyed when the sexes are aggregated together, and Macdonald's epidemiological conclusions are not robust to variations from the Poisson distribution. The conclusion from his model that if schistosome densities in man are reduced appropriately the infection will spontaneously proceed to extinction even in the presence of conditions suitable for transmission, is also not therefore robust.