Evaluating Presidential Nominees: Opinion Polls, Issues, and Personalities

Abstract

SINCE 1968 the presidential nominations process has been greatly changed by new party rules, federal election reforms, and the growth of openly contested primaries and caucuses. Although these changes have greatly increased the party rank-and-file's importance in deciding nominations, relatively little is yet known about how voters choose among the would-be nominees. This research note draws upon a series of nationwide polls taken during the 1980 presidential primary season to address two questions. First, how important are issue-based versus nonissue-based reasons in explaining preconvention choices among the candidates? Second, does public opinion shift toward issuebased reasons during the seven-months-long nominations season?