Assessing the accuracy of three viral risk models in predicting the outcome of implementing HIV and HCV NAT donor screening in Australia and the implications for future HBV NAT

Abstract

First, the residual risk in Australian donors is small in comparison with other transfusion complications and comparable to or lower than the risk in US and European nonremunerated donors. Second, mathematical risk modeling has sufficient precision to be used as a predictive tool for risk-benefit assessments of novel screening procedures. Finally, in relation to the case for implementing HBV NAT and/or anti-HBc in Australia, we conclude that at present, there is inadequate information about our donor population to perform an evidence-based risk-benefit analysis.