Keeping Time: An Analysis of Errors in the Measurement of Unemployment Duration

Abstract

This study uses longitudinal microdata from the Current Population Survey to examine the consistency with which unemployment duration is reported. An estimate of measurement error is proposed and analyzed. A significant negative relationship is found between the initial month's unemployment duration and the reported change between surveys. On average, persons who begin spells of unemployment in the second month report durations greater than the actual time elapsed. Overall, the average duration of unemployment in this sample may be overstated by at least two weeks. A brief discussion of some implications for empirical labor market research concludes the article.