Science · 1999 · 648 citations · 20 references
Natural SciencesEarth SciencesInfectious DiseasesClimate ScienceClimatologyRemote SensingDisease Trend AnalysisSatellite HydrometeorologySatellite Image InterpretationSea Surface TemperatureTropical ClimatologyVegetation IndicesClimate Influence On TransmissionClimate-based Disease ForecastingForecasting Disease OutbreaksForecasting Seasonal OutbreaksNormalized Difference Vegetation Index MappingReal-time MonitoringSatellite-based Weather IndicesWeather-based Disease Forecasting
All known Rift Valley fever virus outbreaks in East Africa from 1950 to May 1998, and probably earlier, followed periods of abnormally high rainfall. Analysis of this record and Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies, coupled with satellite normalized difference vegetation index data, shows that prediction of Rift Valley fever outbreaks may be made up to 5 months in advance of outbreaks in East Africa. Concurrent near-real-time monitoring with satellite normalized difference vegetation data may identify actual affected areas.
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