Objective.

—To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a short-course zidovudine program to prevent perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 in sub-Saharan African country settings.

Design and Setting.

—Several clinical trials of short-course zidovudine during pregnancy for prevention of perinatal transmission of HIV are under way in developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. A decision model was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of zidovudine programs in a hypothetical 1-year birth cohort in a sub-Saharan African setting from the perspective of the health care system and of society. A completed short course of zidovudine was assumed to reduce perinatal HIV transmission from 25% to 16.5%, approximately one half of the effect of the longer-course zidovudine. Estimates of program costs, lifetime HIV-related health care costs, and lost productivity costs were derived from the published literature and from preliminary data available from sites of planned clinical trials. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on all relevant parameters.

Main Outcome Measures.

—Medical costs, lost productivity costs, program costs, cost savings, and incremental cost-effectiveness, expressed as cost per infant HIV infection prevented.

Results.

—The model estimated that a national zidovudine program in a setting with 12.5% HIV seroprevalence would reduce perinatal HIV incidence by 12% (4.9 infections per 1000 births). The cost to the health care system would be $3748 per infant HIV infection prevented. When productivity losses were included in the model, the cost decreases to $1115 per infant HIV infection prevented. The cost to implement a national zidovudine program including the cost of counseling, testing, and drugs, would be $2 million per 100 000 births or $20 per pregnant woman. In the base case, decreases in the cost of counseling and testing and increases in maternal HIV prevalence, zidovudine efficacy, and medical and lost productivity costs improved cost-effectiveness of the zidovudine program.

Conclusions.

—Assuming demonstrable efficacy of short-course zidovudine prevention of perinatal HIV, a national perinatal HIV prevention program with zidovudine in most sub-Saharan African country settings would reduce the incidence of infant HIV infection and, in some settings, provide societal savings; however, substantial initial investment in such programs will be required. Where health care resources are limited, as in these regions, allocation of resources to a perinatal zidovudine program will need to be considered in the context of resources required for other pressing medical care needs.

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Abstract

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