Stability and Change: The Time Varying Impact of Economic and Foreign Policy Evaluations on Presidential Approval

Abstract

Most researchers studying presidential approval with time series analysis assume that foreign and economic policy have a time-invariant weight in citizens’ judgments of presidential performance. However, those studying presidential approval in cross-sectional analysis find that the weight of foreign and economic policy on job performance fluctuates as news about these issues changes. These competing views can be incorporated into a model of rational learning that makes it possible to test whether the public weighs foreign and economic policy differently over time in its evaluation of the president. The analysis presented here shows that foreign and economic policy exhibit different patterns in their relationship to overall approval—economic policy has a consistent impact over time, while foreign policy ebbs and flows.